RACE ANALYSIS - NOVEMBER 6TH
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An excellent class two handicap at Kempton Park featuring a whole host of high class in form handicappers.
A classy individual with good form form going into the race having finished a very close third to Dr Simpson at Dundalk in a group three event. Rating has gone up as a result to 105 but he does have a liking for the all weather. Drifting in the market probably due to the draw in stall ten. Some of the other contenders might be better handicapped, but he is not out of it.
Must be a dream horse to own, but age is catching up with him now. Recent form is modest but his all weather rating is gradually falling from 109 when behind the explosive Kachy at Lingfield in February. Couldn't rule out completely but the price would have to drift more from the current position.
Very classy form through July and August at top meetings winning a class two handicap over today's distance. Subsequent efforts off higher marks including his fifth at York in a big field also read well. You have to ignore his last two performances, one of which came on soft ground when heavily beaten by Gulliver. A return to earlier efforts puts him right in the mix. Price needs to drift further.
Last time out race was much easier than the 156K handicap at Glorious Goodwood so I am inclined to forgive that run in August. Rating has only been raised four pounds from 91 to 95 for a neck victory of rival Warsaw Road. Form in the early part of the year was only moderate in class three and four. Only a four year old so could be improving. The main problem at the moment is the price, but it is on the drift due to the strength behind the favourite. One to keep an eye on for value trading.
Fairly consistent set of form figures. Last time out finished only two and a quarter lengths behind Buridan and has a 5lb pull with that rival. Outside draw is not ideal but if he can find a decent position early may run well. Price is on the drift from 9-1 so may yet represent trade value.
Excellent form in a number of top grade handicaps, including a very close fourth of twenty four behind Golden Appollo. Has the plum draw in stall one so every chance he will be involved in the finish. Another whose price is drifting due to the strength behind the favourite. Looking for a further outward movement on Betfair to start the ball rolling.
Closely matched with Buridan on last outing, but far more consistency across last six outings. Has the stamina for seven furlongs so it would be wise for the jockey to race prominently from stall three. There aren't too many negatives here but the price has drifted quite alarmingly. That would not put me off trading so this is definitely one to be interested in for trading purposes.
Form looks poor coming into this race finishing last or second last on three of the last six starts. On the plus side a rating of 91 is much reduced. I would not be interested in this runner at those odds. Interestingly there has been money in the early afternoon for the horse coming in from 20-1 to below 10-1. Wouldn't surprise me if the price went out again. Others are more consistent.
Form is up and down, so I am a little surprised at the low price on offer. Good form last time out when second to Soldier's Minute. The strength of money here means other horses become trade prices. Might run well from a good stall position but definitely not an 11-4 shot in this very hot race.
Consistent performances across class four to class two. Price is on the drift, but the draw is the main problem birthed in eight. Could be an outside trade though if the price drifts further.
Race summary: This race really revolves around the short price favourite Beyond Equal. This is more competitive than his good second here last time out. I will be trying to find trade price alternative with Warsaw Road & Show Stealer who are both consistent and have solid draws in three and one respectively.
Warsaw Road was a late non runner but Show Stealer took the race from the inside berth.