FORM & PRICE RELATION

The Complete Racing Package

Broughtons Flare

This is an example showing a horse that has a fairly consistent profile with good course and distance form last time out. Sometimes even though there are hardly any negative aspects the price can still drift due to support for other runners. Broughtons Flare comes into this category having run a good second to Human Nature over course and distance beaten just two lengths in a class five contest. He is also well drawn in stall four and has made the running in the past. 

Three year old Broughtons Flare is a pretty solid contender here with a number of good runs under his belt recently. Strip out the class four race at Newmarket and the performance at Kempton and we have a horse that is consistent over these conditions. The runs in August and October were okay even though he finished down the field, due to distance beaten in both race.

I would be happy enough to start an aggressive play given the form and stall position. Looking at the graph we can see the low is just under ten but we need to analyse the 'traded and available chart below first. There is plenty of money traded at 9.58 so I would be looking for a 50% increase from this position.

It is a good idea to check this chart to make sure there is a weight of money at the base price. If there is only a few pounds then we need to look for the next low position were there is a weight of money.

I am happy enough to start the trade at around 15.0. In this scenario I am looking to trade off lower than normal. You can see the first two bets are not in the usual position of 14.0 and 14.5. These have been put in at 11.0. This is sometimes a good idea if you think the price might contract sharply to lock in a bit more potential profit.

The first ladder shows the position after the first two bets have been taken. The combined total has then been placed at 11.0. Not the position of the other bets in the market. I am expecting the price to shorten give the form. In my opinion the price is too big. The second shows the position after the 11.0 trade has been matched. This gives me a hedge position of £2.58. But I am looking for the price to shorten further to hedge. This is shown in figure three. Because price has shortened further the hedge position is better at £4.08.

The profit and loss charts below shows the two options. You could leave the money on Broughtons Flare with a break even position on all other runners or take the hedge to lock in the profit as shown on the right.