The Exchange Trader
RACE ANALYSIS
The Complete Racing Package
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This page will give a run down on all runners in a race and my thoughts on form and value. It is important to connect these two ingredients together when trading. Please note I am not trying to pick the winner of the race, merely trying to find value positions from which to trade. It is not important that selections win, only that a profit can be obtained using in running or hedge. The example shown below is from a typically competitive class four handicap at Windsor run on very soft ground.
Best form is arguably over ten furlongs, with the second of thirteen at Chester to Involved, or the victory at the same track when beating Heart & Soul two and a half lengths the peak of the performances on show above. Winning form over one mile is in class five at Haydock in July. Rating from that run has increased from seventy-two to eighty and this is a better race today. Price is a little on the skinny side based on these factors plus the outside draw doesn't help. I would be looking for a much higher price or an aggressive drift before trading.
An interesting runner dropping down the ratings and class today. The stand out run is definitely the one at Goodwood in August. But that was during 2018 and it would be difficult to look at that with any confidence today over one year on. Price of eight to one and a draw in stall thirteen are not positives. Passed over as a trade option.
Strong form lines with win and place form over these conditions. Still attractively weighted on the official ratings. Six to one is a reasonable price but I would only trade here if there was a fifty percent drift to near ten to one. Not a horse that would drift too much further so a careful watch of the market would be advisable. Probably more for the intermediate and professional traders as small stakes is not going to yield much return. Solid nonetheless.
Form is nothing to write home about. I usually ignore claiming form. Of the three remaining outings only the latest merits any respect. Usually front runs so likely to trade shorter in running, but you would be banking on him getting to the front from stall fourteen. Tricky trade and not for me. Would be of interest if the price was much higher and stall position was lower.
Pretty decent form on the face of it. The middle run at Newmarket and the placed efforts at Brighton and Newbury spring off the page, but the two performances in class three are not without merit, especially as they are off higher official ratings than today. The main concern would be the ground conditions. The Newbury run shows he can handle a little bit of cut, but very soft ground is an unknown. Short enough in the market and not one to get involved with at those odds for trading.
Non Runner
On the face of it Leader Writer has some pretty tepid form, finishing well down the field on his last five outings. However if you look at his performance in May at Beverley, this horse is actually thrown in at the weights. In May he finished third of fourteen in a decent sized field off a rating of eighty three. Today he runs off just seventy three. I was hoping for more than the nine to one on offer though. It boils down to the two important questions. One, can the horse win this race - the answer here is yes. Two, is the price trade friendly - the answer in no.
Another interesting runner with curious form. First I am going to strip away his penultimate run at Goodwood as that was in class three. He was almost certainly outclassed. I am also going to abandon his all weather starts at Kempton. That leaves a victory at Newbury in this class and over this distance coupled with a decent run over seven furlongs when beaten under three lengths by Swift Approval in a big field handicap. A solid form contender and any drift in the market would be of interest for trading.
As with Fortune And Glory above I am going to strip away a couple of outings from this form. The class two handicap at Sandown was too much and although finishing last ran well for a long way. Sir Roderic has always been better with cut underfoot so the fourth of five at Ffos Las has been removed as well. What we are left with is a very consistent horse given the right conditions. Added to that he is a course specialist having gained three wins at this track. The only negative would be the draw. You can see the price drifting in the top right corner from ten to one to twelve to one. This was magnified on Betfair where he traded in the twenties. For me a solid trade at that sort of price. I would be looking to build a potential profit and then lay in running around the five to eight mark.
You have to go back to May to find any worthwhile form for Nightingale Valley, winning a class four handicap over eight furlongs on soft ground. That one run makes this horse of interest. What many traders fail to realise is that trainers have a job to do - namely return this horse to a winning mark. If you were the trainer here ask yourself this question. What can I do to return this horse back to an official rating of 73. One tactic would be to run over a different distance or under different ground conditions. In my opinion this has been done very well. Notice the drift in price (top right). This was again magnified on Betfair, with him being traded in the thirties. Again possibilities to build up a potential profit and trade in running.
A mixed bag of returns from this contender, and unusually running better in class four and class three. All form on a decent surface so conditions underfoot are possibly a problem. However comparatively lightly raced three year old colts can improve suddenly and it is not out of the question this runner will be the same. The price more than anything is off putting with form still developing. Would have been a speculative trade at much higher prices but not at the current value.
Average form, but the one run at Salisbury is the focal point. Second of seven to Alfred Boucher over one mile of soft ground. Official rating has dropped another three pounds which suggests he is capable of running well here. Price is again limiting for small stakes trading, and the run last time out suggests the odds should be much higher than they are currently.
Another three year old from a good stable. All decent form on a fast surface, but win came in a very small field and is probably not worth much. Only run on relatively soft ground resulted in a heavy defeat at Goodwood in a class five. You would probably be able to make a few trades given the odds, but not shown enough under these conditions for me to get involved
Two runs in handicap company have been poor. Only form came in a novice event last year. Novice and maiden form should be overlooked.
PRE RACE: A very interesting little contest with a whole host of runners with worthwhile form. Many of them are about right in terms of price, but SIR RODERIC and NIGHTINGALE VALLEY have both drifted to trade prices. The plan is to build up potential profit on both and trade in running at lower odds.
POST RACE: Sir Roderic ran very well despite his finishing position, taking up the running two furlongs out. At this point his price dropped below the in running price making us a nice return on the race. Nightingale Valley never showed and finished last. It is interesting to note that the well handicapped Leader Writer won very easily in the end.
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