FORM & PRICE RELATION

The Complete Racing Package

In this section I will be looking at the relationship between form and price fluctuation.

Among the aspects analysed will be:

* Last six runs taken from the racing post website.

* The key elements in reading form, which are course, distance, going, class, official handicap rating, and draw.

The next step is to look at the price fluctuation giving reasons for any drifts or contractions in odds.

The analysis will then finish with a look into the preferred running style and whether in play is a negative or positive.

An example is shown below

Twin Appeal - Beverley 3.05 September 24th 2019

Today we look at a class five handicap over seven furlongs at Beverley. The horse in question is the top weight Twin Appeal.

The eight year enters this race on the back of some fine efforts during the mid to late summer months. Here is the form for his last six races:

There are a number of positives in this image. Firstly the course and distance form shown on July 16th and August 31st where he won and came a very close second to Calder Prince, beaten under one length. Secondly he has performed very well in this grade and in class four. The handicap rating is manageable with a rise of just 4lb for a last time out victory.

 

You will notice however in the image above that the price has drifted from 5/1 to a best price current value of 7/1 with bookmakers.

This is reflected in the graph shown below (taken from geeks toy) showing the price display.

This drift is almost certainly due to three factors. Importantly the weather conditions have affected the ground with heavy downpours in the region throughout the morning. You will notice in the form image that the gelding has form mainly on a sound surface. Secondly as the ground deteriorates it becomes increasingly difficult to carry top weight. Finally the draw has not been kind with stall twelve an outside birth at the track.

 

I would not get drawn into this as a trade even though the price has drifted 50% from its low position shown on the graph of around 6.0.

 

A further reason for a no trade is the fact that his race style is mainly held up towards the rear. It is likely that he will be dropped in and ridden for luck which means he will try to arrive very late. This is not a positive for in running plays.

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