The Exchange Trader
FORM & PRICE RELATION
The Complete Racing Package
FORM & PRICE RELATION
The Complete Racing Package
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Describe your image.
Prince Of Rome
This is an example showing a horse that has a fairly consistent profile with good course and distance form last time out. Sometimes even though there are hardly any negative aspects the price can still drift due to support for other runners. Broughtons Flare comes into this category having run a good second to Human Nature over course and distance beaten just two lengths in a class five contest. He is also well drawn in stall four and has made the running in the past.
The very consistent three year old colt Prince Of Rome is our focus today. A glance at the bare form for his previous six runs shows a high level of placed or close up efforts including a very creditable second of seven to Watchable last time out. He was the racing post favourite the evening before the race, but as money came for other runners the price began to drift. A top price of six to one steadily rose to eight to one. As usual this negativity was grossly exaggerated on betfair where he traded a good deal higher - see graph below.
The other important factor to bear in mind is that his style of running was very much conducive to in-play strategies. This can be seen from a racing post form card for his narrow defeat at the hands of Polybius. He also had a reasonable draw in stall five today, so the chances are he would once again be at the forefront as the race developed.
The price graph shows clearly a double in the price from a base price of around 5.0. As the price climbed above 10.0 I was fairly confident trading at that price and beyond. The form meant it was likely to be an easy exchange between 10.0 and the high of 14.0. I was also quite happy to trade at those prices as the in-running price would more than likely be less than 10.0 and therefore I should be able to trade out during the race if I got into a negative position before the start.
The two diagrams above show the amount of potential profit built up and the hedge price. The diagram on the right shows where I placed the in-running play. As the potential profit was £43.01 and my target for the race was £10 the in running trade was placed at 4.30 to a £10 stake. I decided to go with this strategy due to the running style analysed above.
You did however have a few options. The figure on the left is where the potential profit is left alone, but the horse needed to win to give a return. The second figure shows the profit pre race after the hedge had been taken. The third figure shows the end result with the in running play being taken near the finish. There was a slight bonus to this race as Lady Dancealot rattled home to just edge out Prince Of Rome on the post.