The Exchange Trader
SELECTING OUTSIDERS
The Complete Racing Package
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Perhaps the most frequent question on the site is 'how do I select outsiders?' The answer is of course related to form. Unfortunately this is the one area where as a trader you have to put in the hours. Just looking at the daily racing paper and basing your judgement on form figures and pundits analysis is just not going to hack it. This is what separates the professional from the 'get rich quick punter'. To help in this department I am going to show the form for three horses I traded this week at long odds. Two of those three returned very good profits, whilst the third although finishing second resulted in a small loss. The first horse is a five year old which ran at Newcastle on the day racing returned.
The form is analysed through my own database figures and not using the racing post.
Newcastle - June 1st 2020
Saisons D'Or is a relatively modest handicapper who in four runs on the all weather in handicap company returned decent form. We have to ignore the final run in November and concentrate on the performances at Wolverhampton on March 12th and the improved effort over the same course and distance on October 9th. The two important questions to ask are 1. Does the horse have the form to win this race? 2. Do current odds represent value. The answer to both here is yes. The race on June 1st was slightly lower in standard than the one contested in October where he placed third beaten just over one length. At 33-1 with the bookmakers and considerably higher value on Betfair this was a decent trade. In the race Saisons D'Or was always prominent and just failed to hold off the winner Little Jo close home. The in running price of below 2.0 meant decent profits could be taken from the race.
Newmarket - June 4th 2020
The form shown above is not the whole picture as the horse last ran in Meydan in the early part of 2020 taking a very valuable handicap. The database only shows form from the UK. In this case we would have gone ahead with the trade anyway. The three turf runs shown above prove that Cliffs Of Capri is capable of running well under the conditions shown on June 4th. The two performances at Goodwood in particular where very good efforts, going down by just over one length on each run. The only slight doubt here is the gd-fm ground, but at odds of 20-1 and 33-1 on Betfair it was a fair trade. Held up just behind the leaders the horse challenged inside the final furlong but didn't quite get to the winner. It traded considerably shorter in running.
Lingfield - June 6th 2020
The last of the three is a clear trading opportunity. However circumstances during the race meant we were unable to return a large profit. Taking a small loss instead. The price drifted on Betfair from below ten in early exchanges to around thirty were many trades were played out. The horse had previously shown a tendency to front run so I would be happy to trade in running. Using the staggered approach we were able to match most of our stake but unfortunately not all and this resulted in a small loss. Which can of course happen on any race. The reason for the loss are two fold. Firstly Divine Messenger was held up from the gate and raced mostly in rear. This means the price did not initially drop as was expected. Secondly the winner kicked clear two furlongs out and won by seven lengths. Although Divine Messenger finished second it was never really in contention to win. Sometimes you have to take the result on the chin and move on.