The Exchange Trader
We are now going to add in the last run to see what difference that makes to the prices on offer for today's event again at Windsor. Apart from the small increase in ratings from 0-80 to 0-85 the race is the same.
FORM & PRICE RELATION
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Secret Return
This example sets out to show the difference in price between the same horse with differing last time out performances. We reviewed this horse last on the example page of the race analysis link highlighting the form shown below for the 4.10 at Windsor on the seventh of October. You can find this by click on this link. To recap briefly, the form shown below was before that race took place and we suggested the price at the time was a little short even though the form looked solid. Subsequently Secret Return finished down the field to Leader Writer.
The above form now includes the run on October 7th where he finished eighth of thirteen to Leader Writer. On the face of it a thirteen and a half length beating seems difficult to overturn. This is when most traders look elsewhere for a trade. You have to look beyond the obvious and again ask the two questions. Is this horse capable of winning this race and can I trade at the prices available. The first question is easier to answer: as shown by the form on August 17th and June 13th. The second is a matter of experience and judgement. You can see in the top right that the price has drifted from fourteen to one to twenty, this means it is likely to be a higher price on the exchanges. Let's bring in the graph to shown when the price meets with our acceptance.
You can see the price has drifted twice here in two distinct movements. If you were to take an aggressive stance you would be looking to start your trades on a fifty percent increase from the base point. That base point is 16. Therefore as an aggressive trader your first play would be at 24. On this first set of plays the price increased to a top of 30, so you would have bets going through the scale from 24 to 30 as shown below. Laying these bets off two points lower.
As shown by the graph: the price returned to 18 so all the above bets could have been laid off. Taking a stake of £10 this would give you a built in potential profit of £140. Seven bets returning £20 each (i.e £10 bet at 24 laid off for the same amount at 22 and so on up the scale). If you wanted to hedge at this point you could have a built in profit of £7 whichever horse won (by trading at 20). (140/20).
Once the price reached 24 again on the way back up you could start the process again. This time the price went through the previous high. The price actually peaked at 48. The bar below shows you the trades that would ensue.
This time the price fluctuated continuously between these prices and you would have been able to make multiple trades and lock in a decent hedge before the race started. You could also hedge and play in running (which is something I often do in this scenario).
Aggressive play is more for confident traders so let's have a look at the bar for beginners. Here you would start your trades on a price double which in this case would be 32. Sixteen bets gives you are more expansive range up to 80. These were easy trades to make and you could make multiple trades on the bar to build up potential profit. It would be your decision to hedge fully, partially or play in running.
It is interesting to note that Secret Return finished down the field. Irrespective of the result a profit could have been made by trading at the right prices on this selection. Remember you are trader not a punter. It doesn't matter whether the horse wins or loses.